Halfway through the women???s bobsled competition in Sochi, United States 1 leads Canada 1 by 0.23 seconds and third-place United States 2 by 0.56 seconds. With two of the four heats remaining and just a half-second separating three teams, the gold medal seems like it would be up for grabs. Not so fast, my friends.
A fascinating article in Slate suggests that because bobsled results tend to be highly predictable, USA 1 might as well receive their gold medals now. As Ben Blatt discovered, time variations in bobsled runs are so minuscule that the team winning after the second heat has gone on to win 85 percent of Olympic or World Cup competitions since 2006. The gold at each Olympic race in 2010 was already sewn up at the halfway point.